At present, Europe is facing economic, security and political challenges. A closer examination of the changes that have taken place since the transformation of Central and Eastern European countries in the late 1990s may shed light upon the current predicament and provide some clues as to their development prospects.

Put simply, transformation in Central and Eastern Europe refers to the political, economic and social changes modeled on Western Europe, including European integration and a shift to a market economy.

It should be noted that the integration perspective fails to explain why there are great political and economic differences in Central and Eastern European countries after the economic shift. At the same time, the shift perspective fails to explain why remarkable and steady political and economic changes took place in the EU nations. Therefore, both perspectives are needed when studying the status quo in those countries to discover the rule underneath the changes and find common ground with other European countries.
 

Another thing to be considered is that the Europeanization championed by European integration requires Central and Eastern European states to join the EU and accept the leadership of Western European states in practice.
 

Due to differences in economic development and institutional capacity, more Central and Eastern European states are seeking to join the EU which, however, has increasingly become dominated by Western Europe in the process of integration. Therefore, the transformation in Central and Eastern European states, especially in those that are also EU members, in essence, is a process of becoming more like Western Europe.
 

Also, EU-Russia relations need to be taken into consideration. Formerly one pole in the bipolar world of the Cold War era, Russia has shifted its focus to Europeanization and Westernization, laying the foundation for the eastern expansion of the EU and NATO while spurring the EU’s ambition to implement the Eastern Partnership in the name of good governance and reshape Russia.
 

For a time, Central and Eastern Europe served as a bridge between the EU and Russia. Though EU-Russia relations have changed, the current confrontation between them indicates that the fate of Central and Eastern Europe as the intermediate zone remains unchanged.
 

Moreover, the spread of the debt crisis and the crisis in Ukraine pose again a test for the fate of Central and Eastern European nations, but it seems to be a positive test. Compared with those in the euro zone, those outside the euro zone are performing better economically and have an elevated status within the EU economy.
 

For instance, Poland’s bid for regional leadership has been recognized to some extent. The Visegrad Group, an alliance of four Central European states—Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia—has become more coordinated, and Poland has begun to carve out an important role in regional political and security affairs. In light of this, the fact that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was appointed as the president of the EU Council is interpreted as a symbol of the rise of the status and power of Central and Eastern Europe. Though the crisis in Ukraine shattered the future of the region as a bridge between the EU and Russia, the confrontation it caused has enhanced the geopolitical significance of the region.
 

Behind the phenomena is the fact that the euro zone, mainly composed of Western European nations, is too distracted by crises to care about the external situation and that the European integration is suffering from the lack of impetus and leadership. Originally led by Britain, France and Germany, integration has now run into obstacles due to the decline of France and the reticence of Britain. Moreover, Germany is undergoing a shift to seek political and security leadership from the economic leader and its interests in economy, industry and security are greatly related to Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, Germany is happy to see the rise of the region and would like to collaborate with states like Poland to expand its influence and presence in the EU.

In this sense, the fate of Central and Eastern Europe is closely linked with the relations among European great powers. To have a different fate, they should rely on the EU but not excessively, strike a balance in relations with the EU and Russia rather than leaning to one side, and develop relations with emerging powers.

 

Cui Hongjian is director of the Department for European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies.